Bob Raleigh Ph.D., Founder of PathSight Predictive Science | The Search For 'Why' & Predicting Behaviour

Alright, thanks again for joining me. Today I am sitting down with Bob Ralley. Bob Ralley is the founder and managing partner of PathSight Predictive Science. Previously he was CEO of Rockefeller Consulting and a long time television executive at Karsie Werner. He holds a PhD in psychology from Syracuse University. We're going to talk about some of the topics that he studied over his career. Some of the topics that he breaks down in his new book, which is the search for why a revolutionary new model for understanding others, improving communication and healing division could not think of a more relevant time in history when we have to be healing some division. I'm going to let him describe what his book is about, but I'm just going to at a very high level. The premise is that he's arguing that biological instincts are the most foundational determinants of our behavior and that we're all born with a certain profile. He's going to go into science. I'm assuming a little bit of psychology and how this manifests in individuals and how we can use it to our advantage. So, you know, very interesting topic. Bob, thank you for joining me. I guess let's get into it because you're the expert here. I want to unpack your career, unpack how you develop this thesis that has eventually led to this book and what it actually means for people that are listening and how it applies to their daily life. So, thank you. Do we only have an hour? Yeah, it's a big one. I guess I teed it up for a little more of a drawn out session. We'll keep it as high level as we can. Yeah, no, I know. It's a lot. I get it. There's a lot. Yeah, this is the culmination of probably a 20-year exploration. It's not unusual to speak to a psychologist and say they're interested in why people do what they do, but it took a long time to crystallize that moment of, I want to go do this. I want to figure this out. And, you know, I started to play with this a long time ago, but it's interesting. Google every year comes up with the world of search and they do try to do in a aha moment to come to what are the trillions of searches we as a culture meant. So, in 2017, they were looking for, said we were looking for love. In 2018, it was, how do we do? How do we do? How do we do? How do we do important things? In 2019, it was looking for heroes. And this year, 2020, they decided it was the search for why, coincidentally, the title of the book. And they said it really, I think pretty succinctly, you know, why has been searched this year more than any time in the history of tracking searches? And they surmised that why was not just a casual question, but it was like looking for the root for something. And it was all sorts of reasons. You know, we have a pandemic, systemic racism, we've got economic collapse, and everybody was looking for why. And why is really the question that allows you, if you don't have an answer to why, how can you reimagine something? How can you fix something? You know, how can you repair something? So, it made sense to me when I started to write the book for two years ago and finished this year, that why was really on everybody's mind? So, when I got my doctorate, I was looking for why people had success in psychotherapy, where there are different types of therapy that we could predictively match with other people. And that launched me on this trail. I next looked into a job I was hired by Unisys, the primarily banking and aviation tool sets. And they did very early on, they were working on an AI workstation where we could take a Nobel laureate in economics and try to download his brilliance onto a workstation that could be a CEO's assistant. Well, we were way early to the technology, but it really dawned to me that data and understanding people was a powerful, powerful tandem. So, then, as you said, I got into the communications research sales and the light for a large entertainment groups, MCA and spelling entertainment, and most recently with Carcy Warner television. And, you know, that was a really wonderful place to learn about people and why they like what they like. But, you know, the work I was doing was not tied to a coaching philosophy or theory of why people do what they do. So, after a number of years, I decided that I had to get back to the first love of psychology to really try to have a clear concise and model of to anchor all these thoughts that I have about why people do what they do. And so, that was about 10 years ago when I was at Rockefeller Consulting and we were working on traditional consulting ideas, but again, kept back to the point of trying to anchor it into some psychological point of view. So, this path site came about when we decided that the tools that we had in our disposal were not adequate to the job of answering why do people do what they do. So, we set out to select a point of view, build on that, take all the tools that are available and to see if we could take the fields of data science and neuroscience and behavioral science and see if we could mine them for breakthroughs and add them to what we knew and take a kind of a message from the front of the applied line of psychology in the light and see if we could advance the ball and that's what we've tried to do and what we do with path site predictive science. It's a long-winded answer, but that's how I got here. The path, like your career path makes sense. It's not uncommon to find people that need to go back to really what got them excited about a certain topic in the first place, but usually, I would say the end goal of somebody's career is not as monumental as answering the question why. That's a pretty robust goal, but that being said, you're doing it. So, you're merging data, you're merging, I'm assuming to comb through this data at any meaningful pace, you have some sort of, I don't know if it's artificial intelligence, some sort of tool that allows you to do this at scale. How do you even start to conceptualize how to do, because you understand that you want to figure out that you use data plus other to build out a model, but you have to actually build the tool to create that model. How do you do that without a truly technical background, because you're looking to bring in data scientists, developers, and I don't know how this actually manifests, and I'm curious how you started. Great question, because that's at the heart of it all. So, again, life experiences are funny things, if you can take advantage of them. So, I was working with a group in Italy, ISI is a cooperative of world-class scientists. They are working on the edge of knowledge, just they work on everything in the frame of complex networks, and we were working with them on organizational development project, and just happenstance of chief science scientists said, well, what else are you working on? And that was just at the start of, just at the start of Pathside, and I was looking to not create just from scratch a model, but we were looking to anchor our core beliefs in a model that we thought was expandable. Well, the turns out these guys taught me a really basic lesson about complexity. The complexity of connected network works, which the human interface is, especially today as we look at things like Facebook being having 2 billion of the 7.8 billion people in the world connected to it. So, that changes everything. But they said to me that the real a haze and breakthroughs come from the dynamic tension between two things. A really strong theoretical point of view to put your vision on things, to say, I think based on this vision, we could end up here. But it has to be melded with a very strong data component, because that's what keeps you honest. That's what tells you what what we have it validated. It's a score card. You're right. So we learned that very early, and so we started telling them what we were doing, and they said, we'd love to take a peek at your data. So there was the life experience of a meeting somebody, and they continued to be one of the most prolific scientists, data scientists around complex networks. So they looked at our model and said, we're not sure really what you're dealing with, but it seems to be substantial, and we'd love to comment on it if you'd like. So we worked with them early on, and we developed our own data sub-dated groupie that could interface with them, and eventually when they went back to their core scientific inquiry, we took it over, and we have had a group of really sophisticated data scientists help us through the process. And after you align with these data scientists, then obviously this is starting to manifest. Yeah. So when I guess, I'll ask you, when does this turn into, I guess, path sites, or is this, when does this actually turn into something tangible that you can build a model out of, and what does that model start to look like? Yeah. So six years ago, we found that there was this melding of disciplines, and I became enthralled with the area of moral psychology. And that's a long story, but suffice it to say that if we believe that the brain allows you to work or help us figure out how you, how you can create a moral point of view in terms of your decision-making values and things like that. And if in fact, you used all that brain power to create your moral point of view, don't you think there was a, and a half for me, that if that is consuming a lot of what your brain does, don't you think it would have ubiquitous use beyond moral judgments? And that was the premise. That was the premise. So why, why take something and use it for esoteric choices when it could be from the center and how you decide what you like, how you vote, what you join, who you love, all those things are really moral decisions. So I really felt there was a great melding of those things with the models that we've talked about. And so we took some basic decision-making models and merged them with an applied model of cognitive psychology to look at what we knew about how people make those decisions. And then we found that these moral decisions were tied to these deeply embedded instincts that were showing signs of being significant all the way back to the stonage. So you may have heard of a lot of the work of Jonathan Hayton, moral foundations. Those were the instincts that I felt, wow, finally we have a scorecard to be able to take some of these points of view, quantify them and look for ways that they can influence decision-making and behavior change. So we put all that together and started to look at what is the data tell us about what we could reasonably expect. And I guess I have questions about what that result is. But before that, I think I would ask, is this a dangerous model to build? Is this a model that could cod? Like dangerous as if you can predict how somebody makes decisions, could that be used to influence, I don't know. I'm trying to think of the implications of building out a model where you can predict certain things that certain people can do or decisions that they would make. Well, let me start by saying the human interface is the most complex node on the most complex network in we've ever experienced. So on flatter, but we don't have that degree of predictability yet. What we have is something that goes beyond anything we've ever had, but it still leaves a lot that we don't know. So what we've done is for a hundred years, the conventional wisdom was that demographics really could be used to tell us why we did these things. You know, but after a hundred years, we know a lot about demographics. They tell us kind of who we are and what we do, but they are really lousy at telling us why do we do it. And there's so many segmentation models that are based on those precepts of demographics. And they've all sooner or later wilted under scrutiny. And so we added these instinctual points of view. These are five instincts of instinctually how do you care about children? What is there your need for fairness? Who are you loyal to? What are the rules of the game? What's your authority idea and then this instinct for purity? So what they are, they're not to be confused with an instinct like when you go into the doctor and cross your legs and you get a patellar instinct where you kick the doctor, right? Like a surgical response. Exactly. It's not like that. You trigger the care instinct and bam, something automatic comes in. But what these do, the patterns of those instincts, you do have a early in child that we've figured out that you have a pattern of which which ones of these instincts you're sensitive to. And what happens is as you go through life and your life experiences, edit those instincts, we know that how you see the world, your world view is constructed by those life experiences and your instincts and your demographics. And all the other things that we've known over the years go into creating an identity. And we've decoded that we think there are five of these instinctual patterns that we can identify. But two of them are really, really significant. And these two are what we see all the time referenced in our tribal world. And they're referenced in politics and philosophy and all sorts of things. But these two are really, really, we bifurcate the world in terms of these two major instinctual profiles. And then the three in the middle are kind of the way we marry up, which part of the two instincts are you most influenced by. So they're the kind of one Scott here. Just want to press pause on today's episode and thank our sponsor get mister, you can find them at getmister.com. Let me show you why I was so excited when they reached out. So if you're like me, you're getting older, you, your skin, you don't really take care of it as much as you should. You perhaps use moisturizer once in a while, you use sunscreen once in a while, maybe if you're shaving, you're using aftershave, but you're not religious about this. There's too many lotions out there, too many variants. You don't put on sunscreen every time you should. 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More back and forth. So really it's these two two big ones that are really are the immovable forces. And the rest of the other three would just to draw a parallel would be almost like a venn diagram of crossover of various components between to make it polarizing ones and then the smaller. Exactly. And so what we've done is we've started over the last six years to explore the way these profiles can predict what people will respond to different environments, different problems, different stimuli and things like that. So the real wild card is to say what do we think these instinctual patterns are because we've done a lot of the work on the back end of saying oh if we know you have this one instinctual pattern likely you're going to be really fair-minded. Empathy is a given. You're probably fight the conformity of a cultural mandate but you're probably going to look for new and different problems to solve and to make friends with. So that would be one and then we can get all sorts of detail about what that looks like. And so what we've done then is created this intelligent advisor so that when somebody says I'm interested in my brand for example and I'd like to figure out who likes to do doesn't like it and what can I do about it and those are kind of the simple questions that we can answer now. That's very interesting and to date I'm just because I don't understand the full the full amount of research is going on in this. To date this model that you're presenting is on the forefront like this is what you know would be referenced as sort of leading edge in terms of understanding these. I think so and there's a tremendous amount of research going into this type of a conceptualization. What do we know about the moral decisions you're making? What do we know about decisions you're making? What do we know about all those things are variables that the scientific world through data science, neuroscience, behavior science and everything related are investigated. So we continue to harvest as much as we can to build it into our model. We call it the model of why and it I don't know anything it's better. No that's you know don't don't don't be ashamed like like I'm just curious because I don't I don't know everybody who's doing research in this topic and I think it's like a very interesting very interesting topic and I think it's more relevant than ever like you said Google is showing us that people are trying to find reasons as to why everything's happening so I think that anything that can help shed even like you know you mentioned it's not it's not the age to the point where it can predict everything somebody can do but any kind of light that could be shed on an action or or or or something that happens people will find safety in that and it's useful right? There's a word launching a number of initiatives right so we've got partnered with those some job search groups and so now you know that's that's that's primed for you know everybody runs the candidates through a litany of tests and and they make a decision and then and that's automated well we we tend to think of the automation as a positive but we know that you've got to you've got to have some human judgments in these things so what we do is we start with analyzing any population to which you want to bring somebody and put them into that population right so we've got our our our instinctual patterns you know those one I talked about there's there's others that I could share with you but so we think you have to start with the starting point of what's the environment that you're asking somebody to come and join and so we go okay we we've got a pretty neat way we can survey everybody in the in the department and define what the instinctual patterns are for the whole department how do they make decisions what do they think about and treat people who were fairly well how does management want to interact with these people so your instincts go into all of that and so at the end of the day we're able to say you know we'd love this department we're doing great work they they're they like everybody in the department and so they can say we want somebody just like this department to be hired now we can and find finding those people and making a judgment not just on their skill set and their job referral you know recommendations but rather now we can say and they have just the right type of a of an instinctual pattern to fit right in that makes a lot of that but you may find yeah and we we also all could have the the situation where they say you know we do a great work in our department but we do have one challenge that I don't think we're we're managing correctly and we can hire somebody with the instinctual pattern that can bring that skill set into the the department and so we can do it as as a as somebody should fit in or somebody who should bring a different skill set that we can cultivate into the group so it works very well as a is a social variant variant to say who's the because you know people people are saying that a bad hire costs a company like $240,000 in here you know we know that so if this is a perfect way for you to to measure something that's quantifiable and make a decision on top of just the words permitted you know that makes that makes a lot of sense I I want to ask a few more questions about like some of the results but I can you can you just define those two main those two main groups because he said there's two main polarizing groups right so so one was the individualist so they're the ones that that use are upset not obsessed they use the individual as a currency they they're really worry about fairness and justice for the individual every individual is considered fair game they're all hardwired to think that empathy and fairness are are right for these people so when you're thinking about the government governing and you're thinking about allocations of resources and things like that it's a big deal to make that commitment everybody should be treated equally and what does that mean but that's the kind of ground rule that this person says has very much in in terms of valuing diversity and and but because that mindset they really think about new things and and and trying different things in problem solving where you can use new ways to solve problems the downside is is sometimes you can be so enamored with the new thing that you ignore the the the tried and true and and the the capacity of built boundaries about around those folks is kind of a challenge so there's a good and bad for that point of view of course yeah you know that's the kind of point of view in in in in in governance and in culture that keeps you moving forward because you're opened these new ways to do things the other side is the polar opposite and that these are folks that are believe there's a natural order in things and that natural hierarchical order is there's winners winners and losers there's a winners and losers leaders and followers all those kinds of things and and there's there's looking for the the broad sweeping authority to keep people together you know we will we all hang hang out and we're all committed and this guy's the leader and the leader says yes and we're we have a loud voice loud voice for the leader and it asks us to step in line and and and and respect that and no one person is more important than the group so you don't want to put things in in in in jeopardy by infusing too too much for for for one person's benefit so you can see there's two unique points of view and they have entirely different world views for governance and culture and things like that and that's why our cultures are in in disarray because people have with so much social media and and that our tribes you know tribe one or two are we are so easily recognizable that the social media has put us into these these competing camps and we ended up getting addicted to the concept of yes because if if if it's an echo echo chamber in your in your group and all you hear is you're right you're right you're right all of a sudden you think you have all the answers and and so now if these two points of view are set on each other then all of a sudden it's it's it's a terrible thing to see because people criticize people for their genuine genuine and sensual point of view when you know you didn't have a lot of choice in this it's you don't choose to be social binder or you don't choose to be an individualist it's the it's your instincts your life experiences and you come out of adolescence and bam you're you you've got this point of view and then if I if I criticize you for your instinctual point of view will never get anywhere so you mentioned an interesting point and that was one thing I wanted to touch on and I'm actually kind of glad you went there about you know big data social media extreme polarization echo chambers so we're only seeing people that agree with us I'm on social media which is a big deal and I think that you know I'm actually Canadian so I didn't disappear to the same extent I'm in Toronto right now but you know I think we see all the news anyways so I think that we've never seen polarization at least in my lifetime like I've seen over the course of the past year and then some so my question to you is now that we understand the root cause how do we like what's what's the fix like how do we you know it seems like data and social big data and and social media have almost made this problem much worse than it could have been but I don't see how we go back on it and fix it you have an idea as to how to use this information for good yeah I've got some some points of view I will tell you that we've done a analysis between the United States and Canada we've done a lot of work in Canada in that Canada has less polarization because there's more of those groups in the middle have more power in Canada than they do in the states and I can send you some stuff really interesting difference between Canada and the US but you know I um the solution is not to throw out technology because who can do that but I think you've got a we've got to get back to having a human relationship with people beyond social media and you know I do a lot of things and radio and podcasts and and and it's so interesting for me because everybody has their instinctual point of view and and and most people are really really willing to share with you they're willing to say this is what I believe but we have to start by asking you know we don't want to take the like today with social media you know we're four just four armed we're four warned of who I'm speaking to because if you go on on social media you know that this is a social binder or conservative or a tea party or somebody like that very early on in those conversations you're going to know that and everybody walks around four armed to to be do combat out of the gate telling somebody that their point of view is not appropriate and that's that is we can do something about that we can then demand that people have a little civility and say instead of saying that's a stupid idea how can you come to agree with that and say tell me about that and what what you find when you take people's points of view and listen to them you diffuse that sense of impotence that sense of no power that sense of you've you've sentenced me to irrelevance and that's the first step we have to we have to and I know it's not a great sexy first technological step but that's what we have to do is reinvest ourselves in a human condition it's it's an interesting problem but I think that I think you nailed it you know if if instead of instead of just seeking out like-minded and blocking or removing ourselves from everybody and I think it's almost been further further propagated by the fact that we're all isolated at home so it's that you can't even have those in person and a lot of a lot of communications lost on us when we're it's over video or just text right but if you if you if you seek out the other side and you seek out alternative points of view I think that that would make your your social media experience less of an echo chamber and more of a learning experience that would probably solve many of these polarization issues but it has to be as to be like intrinsically motivated like you can't you can't force somebody to do that so they have to you know that when you look at what happened two weeks ago yeah I sense and this may just be a a a unique moment in time but I sense everybody kind of stepping back from the the break and saying we almost went too far and I'm seeing and it may be at an anecdotal and maybe temporary but I'm seeing people starting to say yeah I think I've got to find a different way to do this and and then if you can find your way to work on a project that's local the national stuff is is almost untenable but if you can work on a local project you know I've seen people all the time get into a project and they say I wouldn't a vote for that guy for dog catcher I can work with him I got it I want to get this school done I wanted to get this charity I want to get to do this and that's another way to get people into challenging their their points of you yeah that's very very smart very smart I want what I what I what I like to do so when I break down these interviews are kind of start off with what you're focusing on now then I like to go into some more personal details about your career and your successes so I do like sort of bring you back into it but before I keep before I sort of I don't want to pivot away from this because it's very interesting but we touch on a lot of points is there anything else that I didn't bring up that you that you thought was important sort of bring up in in line with what we just spoke well I think one of one of things is you know we think that we develop whole person insights so these are things that we we can break off and do things like recruiting and job hiring but really we're working on holistic solutions for for remaking the culture of a company any human capital challenge is one that we think we were uniquely qualified to to to pine on so we think it's marketing and it's product development benefits and benefit management we're doing some really breakthrough stuff on on health care and people who are not likely to have access to health health care how do we get them reintegrated into the into the marketplace so those are I just wanted to see the the expands of what we're we're working on and no no it's I think it's incredible work it's very interesting and obviously interesting is probably an understatement it's more like like it's like you know society defining if this keeps moving this direction so in this particular book because this was obviously you know what drove most of this or it was the the the result of a lot of this research what do you go through in the books if somebody does want to check it out and read more what would they get in this book well they get the first part is an evolution of how we built the model and the building blocks of the model so it's it's pretty detailed but it it gives you real ground up approach for what it is and we have three three buckets in the group here in the in the book a a working on the building blocks of people and what what goes into your identity and and how to how to understand it and use it the next is that the the ecosystem of social and work in school and all those systemic in Greek engagement how do how do you fit into work how do you take your your building blocks of your identity and apply that to to a career and what are the what are the things that are going to be important to you and not important to so that systemic ecosystem is is is dealt dealt with in that way and then the third is the population you know what are the impacts for for governments what are the impacts for problems sadly what are the impacts for how we want to organize our government and and make better decisions in in that regard so those are the three buckets of the of the book very interesting okay good that's very good okay so I'm going to ask just some questions about your career the question the first question I usually ask is norm I'm going to I'm going to reframe it a little bit but normally it is what would somebody do to pursue a career similar to yours no you have an interesting career so I'm not going to ask that what I'm going to ask I'm going to ask first of all if you look inward what what traits have you discovered in yourself that you recognize in why you chose a career that you chose and then what would be one it's going to be two part questions so that would be the first part so looking inward and understanding like what motivators led you to live a life of research and and sort of go back and and do what you did when you pivoted from working in corporate to going back into psychology but then secondly second part of that question would be what would be in a one piece of advice that you would give somebody looking to align their career with their motivators is that are those fair questions because I'm just really curious as to okay so I'd like you to go into that because that's very interesting well for me it was you know I knew that I was going to pursue psychology early on you know I had to just some family experiences with early early on my my career my grandmother interestingly you know her husband died and 40 years old she went back to Syracuse University and got a degree in social work and she she created there's this movement in in her her childhood where they created settlement houses where they tried to bring people that were disadvantaged into to have access to all the that society would would provide them and she was she was the queen of Syracuse New York working in these disadvantaged communities and she just said you know what about the people what about the people I would come home with with the new psychology degree of the day you know now we're going to talk about behaviorism and cognitive and and each time she said what about the people what about the people and so I knew for for at that moment I was going to be in in that business and at a second second point was when I chose to expand this this interest and start into the corporate world I nobody in my family had done that I I was the kidney big and it was it gave me a much broader sense of who I was and how I saw the world so that stoked my world view and made gave me some policy to say this is this is something you you can play in this world so I was pretty successful that and then I decided to return with with psychology because I really felt that was the opportunity to to to make some statement of an impact I've seen the corporate world I founded lacking and some of the reasons I founded lacking I felt was in my control to to opine about that and so that was how I how I envisioned the how this this this world view has served me so no very good very very good and then the second the second piece of that was if somebody was going to ask you you know I'm I'm looking at career options what would some advice for me be if I want to align my profile I guess at the figure out my profile is first but how would I align that I would say I would spend a fair amount of time trying to to understand and what you know we all have a we all have a world view that's uniquely ours but we can add flimpses into that by looking at it how how we process these instincts and incorporate them into your world view and when you when you feel comfortable about the delineating what's really driving you that's going to really free up the the choices it'll you'll be able to make much more informed choices and you'll be able to I think be at peace with that because you know there's a lot of ways people can get the certain to certain runs on the ladder but there's a very few ways that you can feel like you're fulfilling yourself based on your intellectual and instinctual points of view so I think that that moment of we now have tools that allow us to shed light on on those factors and I think it should take advantage of and then at that point then go know that no single decision is not reversible so if you make a mistake it's just a mistake good no good advice good advice um what's a resource could be a person a book um that's helped too long your way that you'd recommend somebody going best again that's it that's uh I would I would I would recommend Jonathan hates the righteous mind you know they do you did a great job of making that concept accessible to all you know every ever take people and and that would be a great book for people good good and so um what would be a lesson that you would tell your younger self I think I think to trust trust your instincts to um because all the ultimately they're that's what you have to live with you know and don't take a job for the money take the job for you know all those classic job advice things but but if you can get in touch with with the needs and and the the wants that you you have um in in your possession man you go hard and good good and um last last question for you you know you have it you've had a tangerine career and you've done pivots and you've come out successful now you're sort of leading me edge on on on research in this particular area but my question would be what does uh what the success look like for you um I'm I'm going to leave those ones that um it's a deep satisfaction that you've done something worthwhile that's for me is um is what success work good looks like um okay very good um my most important question where do people connect with you where do people find the book you have um links that you can you can give I'm going to link everything in the show notes as well but um where do you want people to go um I'm accessible at pathside.com P-A-P-A-T-H-S-I-G-H-T we're on Instagram and Twitter and all those types of things so we're we're there and the book is a you know Amazon target all the usual Barnes and Noble uh so pretty widely distributed. Good and I'll link um what I'll do is I'll link the I'll link the Amazon below too so people can find it on Amazon the show notes if they want to go check it out